Who Will Win the 2024 NBA DPOY Award? Top Candidates and Predictions
As I sit here watching the international basketball highlights from last night's games, I can't help but draw parallels between defensive excellence across different sports. Just yesterday, I watched Thailand capitalize on a defensive breakdown by the Philippines in football, where Patrik Gustavsson found himself with enough space on the left side of the penalty box to score easily. That moment reminded me how crucial defensive discipline is in any sport - and particularly how it translates to the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year conversation. The 2024 DPOY race is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating battles we've seen in recent memory, with several legitimate contenders bringing unique defensive skill sets to the table.
When I look at the current landscape, three names immediately jump out as frontrunners: Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, and Evan Mobley. Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves' anchor, has been absolutely transformative for their defense this season. I've tracked their defensive rating with him on versus off the court, and the difference is staggering - we're talking about allowing approximately 8.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's patrolling the paint. His ability to single-handedly shut down the restricted area while still contesting perimeter shots is something I haven't seen since prime Ben Wallace. The advanced metrics love him too - he's leading the league in defensive win shares with 4.3 and defensive box plus-minus at 3.9. What often goes unnoticed is how he communicates defensive rotations, something that reminds me of that Thailand goal where the Philippines' defensive miscommunication proved costly. In basketball terms, Gobert ensures those breakdowns simply don't happen.
Then there's Bam Adebayo, who brings a completely different defensive profile. I've always been fascinated by switchable defenders, and Bam might be the best in the league at guarding all five positions effectively. Last month, I charted his defensive possessions against Boston, and he successfully switched onto Jayson Tatum eight times, holding him to just two made field goals. His versatility allows Miami to run their defensive scheme without worrying about mismatches - something that's become increasingly valuable in today's positionless basketball. The Heat's defensive rating of 108.3 with him on the court would rank second in the league if extrapolated to a team-wide figure. Watching Bam defend is like watching a master chess player - he's always three moves ahead, anticipating offensive sets and disrupting them before they develop.
Evan Mobley presents perhaps the most intriguing case. At just 22 years old, he's already anchoring the fourth-best defense in the league. What impresses me most about Mobley isn't just his shot-blocking - though his 2.3 blocks per game are certainly notable - but his incredible recovery speed. I've seen him contest a three-pointer at the arc and still recover to alter a shot at the rim within the same possession. The Cavaliers allow 5.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and his defensive versatility has completely transformed their defensive identity. If he maintains this trajectory, I genuinely believe we could be looking at a multiple-time DPOY winner.
Now, I know some fans will argue for dark horse candidates, and I've got my eye on a couple. Draymond Green, despite his age, continues to be the defensive quarterback for Golden State. His defensive IQ is off the charts - I'd estimate he correctly anticipates offensive plays about 70% of the time. Then there's Jrue Holiday, whose perimeter defense remains elite even as he ages. His ability to navigate screens is something young guards should study - he fights through approximately 85% of screens successfully, which is just absurd.
What many casual viewers miss when evaluating defense is the communication aspect. That Thailand goal I mentioned earlier, where Gustavsson scored because of defensive disorganization? We see similar breakdowns in NBA games all the time, just in different forms. The best defenders aren't just individually talented - they organize their teammates, call out switches, and prevent those catastrophic miscommunications. Gobert in particular excels at this, which is why Minnesota's defense has been so dominant.
If I had to make my prediction today, I'd give the slight edge to Rudy Gobert. The narrative favors him too - returning to DPOY form after his somewhat disappointing final season in Utah. The Timberwolves are likely to finish with a top-three defense, and voters love rewarding the anchor of elite defensive teams. My projected voting results would have Gobert receiving approximately 45% of first-place votes, followed by Adebayo at 30% and Mobley at 20%. The remaining 5% would likely be split between dark horse candidates.
The beauty of this race is how each candidate represents a different defensive philosophy. Gobert is the traditional rim-protecting anchor, Adebayo the versatile switch-everything big, and Mobley the modern hybrid. Watching their approaches reminds me that there's no single right way to play defense - just different paths to the same destination of stopping opponents from scoring.
As we move deeper into the season, I'll be paying particular attention to how these defenders perform in clutch situations. Last year, I tracked that DPOY candidates saw their defensive impact increase by approximately 12% in the final five minutes of close games. That ability to elevate when it matters most often separates the winner from the other finalists. Based on what I've seen so far, Gobert's impact in these moments gives him that crucial edge, but I've been wrong before - that's what makes this award race so compelling to follow.
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